NEWS

LEAP Académie - 2009/2010 Prom’

LEAP is proud to present the promotion of its pilot-year of Political Anticipation training :

Baudouin De Sonis, Executive director e-forum, member of Academia Diplomatica Europaea, historian of the future, Belgium

Bruno Paul, Country Leader for Methods and tools / France Offering Manager for Agile chez Atos Origin, France

Jérôme Defaix, Pôle emploi (Employment agency), Directorate general for Information systems, France

Jean-Emmanuel Gilbert, SME CEO, France

Karim Naidji, Researcher and consultant, France

Ludovic Follot, Free-lance consultant - Telecom and information technologies, France

Michaël Timmermans, Gas Operator (Energy), Project manager "A travers les Arts !" asbl (Social) - Member of Newropeans’ CD (Political), Belgium

Sébastien Rouxel, Cost controller – Member of FESTO EURL steering committee, France

These eight people, coming from various sectors (finance, social affairs, journalism, chemistry, management, diplomacy), all readers of the GEAB, followed the three days of training proposed this year 2009/10 by LEAP, wrote high quality anticipations, and were thus awarded the LEAP Académie Certificate.


Four years of GEAB archives now available for 100 euros!

Yesterday’s anticipation is today’s news!

For 100 euros TTC, get codes (for 1 month) and download all the archive-issues of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (1).

Order now!

(1) Important! This offer includes ALL past issues BUT the last 7 ones


Video - The day I convinced Mitterand to reactivate the Erasmus programme, by Franck Biancheri

Civis Memoria* has interviewed Franck Biancheri on the decisive role he played in the launching of the Erasmus programme in 1987. The video of the interview (in French) is now available online from their website.

*CivisMemoria is a website recently created by historians and journalists in partnership with Historia, Magnum and Le Point, whose ambition is to be "a library dedicated to Men’s memory with a vocation to preserve and share the memories of those whose destiny crossed History".

Appointment! This video, among other documents, will be presented in the French Senate on June 7th, during a day of European history (Civis Memoria’s workshop from 3 to 5 pm - free entrance!).


GEAB N°46 (June 16, 2010) - Contents

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure

The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)

(Learn more)


Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable

Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)

(Learn more)


European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability

In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)

(Learn more)


Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)

(Learn more)


US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »

The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)

(Learn more)


Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management

Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19) (Learn more)


Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010

US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock

Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!

World stock markets face the unthinkable

Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)

(Learn more)


The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)

(Learn more)


Special subscribers’ announcements

EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010

Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)

(Learn more)


LAST PAPERS

Public announcement GEAB N°46 (June 16, 2010)

Each day the news confirm the extent to which the global systemic crisis has now entered into the phase of global geopolitical dislocation, even if the media only timidly begin to interpret the historic upheavals which unfold before our own eyes. For LEAP/E2020, the second half of 2010 will ...


by Héctor R. Sánchez

"In the geopolitical sphere today, … , it is not unreasonable to say that, while the great continental powers in Eurasia, Russia, China and India, are in an excellent state of economic growth, technological development and growing political influence, the great maritime powers, like the United ...


by Matthew Omolesky *

Fear and Loathing in Brussels On February 24, 2010, Herman Van Rompuy, the “visage de l’Europe” [63] by dint of the Lisbon Treaty, delivered his first speech to the European Parliament in his new capacity as President of the European Council. Midway through the speech Van Rompuy joked that, due ...


by Prof. Loukas Tsoukalis*

As the drama unfolds and the plot thickens, new actors join the stage and the tension rises. Purgation, or catharsis, releases emotions at the final stage of Greek tragedies. We may soon find out what form this will take in the real life drama the Greek economy is going through today, with or ...


by Farish A. Noor, Senior fellow RSIS*

Executive Summary: • The current dispute between Malaysia and Indonesia over the question of cultural copyright has led to instances of mob activism in the streets of Jakarta and other cities and the rising of tempers on both sides. • However it should be noted that the sudden rise of ...


by Franck Biancheri, Newropeans President

As the debate rages over Manuel Barroso’s renewal at the head of the European Commission, everyone seems to forget that this year is also the 10th anniversary of Santer’s Commission collective resignation on grounds of ill-management and corruption scandals. According to Newropeans, and to all ...


by Dr. Alexey Y. Laikov, Senior Lecturer

This paper has been prepared on the basis of the report delivered by the author at the round table session “Competitiveness of Russian insurance companies” in Finance Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation on April, 24th 2009 Topicality of the issue The course of crisis ...


By Rudo de Ruijter*

Sometimes money is compared with the blood of the economy. The credit crisis painfully demonstrated, that the economy depends on a permanent infusion of credits. As soon as the banks deliver a bit less credit, enterprises fail and the mass dismissals succeed each other. We are made to believe, ...


Open letter to the G20 leaders, published in the Financial Times’ worldwide edition on 03/24/2009

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than a semester to prevent the world from plunging into a crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve, accompanied by a whole series of tragedies and ferment? Therefore, this ...


Executive summary - Seminar GlobalEurope 2020 (Moscow, December 18-19, 2008)

TABLE OF CONTENTS I- Preamble II- Strategic and operational perspective III- Work synthesis Introduction 1. EU-Russia strategic cooperation in the field of finance and economy: how to contribute to found a new sound and balanced economic and financial order? 2. EU-Russia strategic ...


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